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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.